My first reaction when I read an article on this site by Arnold Bock - articulating why gold would go to $10,000 - by 2012 no less - was amazement. Who in their right mind would suggest that gold would eventually reach $2,500, let alone $5,000 or even $10,000? Well, I did some investigation and, believe it or not, Bock is in lofty company. Many respected individuals, such as David Rosenberg, Peter Schiff, Harry Schultz, Rob McEwen and many others, have come to the same conclusion. Below is a partial list of such individuals with sound reasons to substantiate their
1. Peter Schiff:
As President & Chief Global Strategist of Euro Pacific Capital, Schiff correctly called the current bear market before it began. As a result of his accurate forecasts on the U.S. stock market, economy, real estate, the mortgage meltdown, credit crunch, subprime debacle, commodities, gold and the dollar, he is becoming increasingly more renowned.
He recently was reported in Business Week as saying that "People are afraid of the debasement of all the currencies. What's surprising is that gold is still as low as it is ... Gold could reach $5,000 to $10,000 per ounce in the next 5 to 10 years."
2. David Rosenberg:
Rosenberg, the former Merrill Lynch North American Economist and current Chief Economist and Strategist for Gluskin Sheff, an independent investment firm for high net worth individuals, believes that "$3000 an ounce on gold may yet prove to be a conservative forecast." He went on to say:
- "if the gold price to world GDP ratio were to ever scale up to the peak three decades ago, it would imply an ultimate peak for gold of $5,300 an ounce.
- if the relationship between gold and the M3 money measure where to revert to the 1990 high, then gold would move to $5,700 an ounce.
- if gold were merely put on the same footing as the CPI, and head back to the previous peaks in this ratio, it would suggest $2,300 as the peak in gold -- only a double from here.
- if the gold price-M1 ratio was used then gold would go to $3,100 per ounce under the proviso that prior highs get re-established."
3. Alf Field:
Alf Field has been called the "world's best gold analyst." He is well known for his many spot-on predictions in the precious metals market and these are some of his determinations regarding the future price of gold;
a) "In the 1970's bull market, gold increased from a low of $35 to a peak of $850, a massive 24.3 times the low price. If the current bull market was to be of the same order, then one could project an ultimate peak of $6,221 (gold's low price in the current cycle of $256 x 24.3).
b) Field outlined in an article back in August 2003 his conviction, which he referred to again in his concluding November 2008 article on the subject of Elliott Wave and the gold price, "that the world, and especially the USA, was heading for a major financial crisis that would be so powerful that it would overwhelm all other factors [which] I referred to as the 'Big Kahuna' crisis. I anticipated that the Big Kahuna would give rise to the risk of a systemic meltdown, which would result in the authorities 'throwing money at problems', bailing out all the banks and large corporations that got into trouble. This would lead to the [eventual] destruction of the currency...The consequence of the systemic meltdown would be a vast increase in newly created
money which would result in a massive rise in the price of gold" culminating in a "Major FIVE...to $10,000" [which] "can really only be possible in a runaway inflationary environment, something which many thinking people are suggesting has become a possibility as a result of the actions taken during the recent crisis." [Indeed,] "the odds strongly favour an inflationary outcome. Given a strong will and the ability to create any amount of new money via the electronic money machine, it seems a foregone conclusion that runaway inflation will be the end result. If Mugabe could do it in Zimbabwe, there seems little doubt that Ben Bernanke and his associates in other countries will have no trouble in doing it too."